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Argentina: is this time different?

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by  RBC Emerging Markets Equity team, L.Bensafi, CFA® Jan 15, 2025

Argentina is a country mired in political and economic instability, yet on our recent trip, we were struck by the European feel of the elegant, tree-lined streets of Buenos Aires. It is is quite different to other Latin American countries and in our view, one of the most interesting ones in emerging markets.

In our full note, we discuss:

  • Argentina’s decline throughout the 20th century due to political instability, protectionist policies, economic mismanagement, and global shifts in trade and industry.

  • The shock presidential win at the end of 2023 of President Milei, labelled as an ultraliberal, ultraconservative, far-right populist.

  • How Milei has managed to remain so popular, despite slashing government expenses and bringing the percentage of population in poverty to 50%.

  • The current economic situation, which is still very fragile, with negative foreign exchange reserves and a high level of debt that needs to be repaid in 2025.

  • Insights from meetings with management teams of large listed corporates, economists, and informal conversations on the ground.

  • The possibility of gaining prudent exposure through Latin American companies with operations in Argentina.

Many investors have been burned in the past and we remain cautious, as uncertainties and risks are high. We hope that indeed this time will be different for Argentina.

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RBC GAM is the asset management division of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) which includes RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (RBC GAM Inc.), RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc. (RBC GAM-US), RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited (RBC GAM-UK), RBC Global Asset Management (Asia) Limited (RBC GAM-Asia) and RBC Indigo Asset Management Inc. (RBC Indigo), which are separate, but affiliated subsidiaries of RBC.

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