Senior Portfolio Manager Anthony Kettle’s weekly BlueBay Emerging Market Debt commentary offers readers a concise yet wide-ranging macro overview. Kettle covers markets large and small, providing insight on how financial, political, and economic developments in one region affect markets elsewhere. Here is his latest insight.
Summary
Risk markets consolidated this week with the S&P 500 and the Euro Stoxx 50 gaining +0.3% and +0.7% respectively while Emerging Markets (EM) equities underperformed dropping -0.5%. The US rates curve bear flattened with 5-year yields 8 basis points (bps) higher and 30-year yields 4bps higher. 10-year US real rates were 10bps lower at 1.84%.
In EM credit markets, spreads were 6bps wider for corporates and 7bps wider for sovereigns, while total returns were up +0.2% and +0.1% respectively. In the corporate space, the oil & gas and industrial sectors outperformed, while the consumer sector underperformed. In the sovereign space, Senegal outperformed as markets looked ahead to progress with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while Argentina underperformed as a fresh corruption scandal embroiled the administration.
In EM local markets, returns were up +0.1% with foreign exchange (FX) flat and rates gaining +0.1%. In the FX space, Latam FX marginally outperformed while Asia was a laggard. In the rates space, Latin America outperformed with Colombia being the highlight.
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