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BlueBay Emerging Market Debt Update

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by  BlueBay Fixed Income Team, A.Kettle Mar 20, 2025

Senior Portfolio Manager Anthony Kettle’s weekly BlueBay Emerging Market Debt commentary offers readers a concise yet wide-ranging macro overview. Kettle covers markets large and small, providing insight on how financial, political, and economic developments in one region affect markets elsewhere. Here is his latest insight.

Summary

It was another rocky week for risk markets, as the S&P 500 fell -2.3%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 and emerging-market equities (EM) were down -1.2% and -0.8%, respectively. The US rates curve was close to unchanged, while the German Bund curve twist steepened, with 2-year yields 6 basis points (bps) lower and 30-year yields 9bps higher. Meanwhile, US real yields moved 5bps higher in the 10-year point, to end the week at 2.0%.

In EM credit markets, spreads were 3bps wider in both corporates and sovereigns, while total returns were down -0.1% and -0.2%, respectively. In EM corporates, outperformance came from the real estate and financials sectors, while the transport and telecommunications sectors lagged. In the sovereign space, Venezuela recovered and outperformed, along with El Salvador and Ukraine. Argentina was a notable laggard due to technicals, as despite the likelihood of the country securing an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme in the near term, which would be positive, investors are concerned that the IMF will require a depreciation of the currency (which again would be positive but has implications for local market dynamics).

In EM local markets, total returns were +0.3%, with foreign exchange (FX) contributing positively. Regionally, it was Latin America that outperformed, with Brazil and Mexico driving positive FX performance. There was also a notable move stronger in the Russian rouble, as investors began to factor in a softer US stance that may precipitate a looser sanctions regime.

Download this article for the full market highlights, market outlook, and latest performance.

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