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• Canada

  Canada's latest budget unveiled fiscal stimulus and a push for more infrastructure and capital investments. S&P/TSX consensus earnings estimates have been raised for 2026 to 15%. Profit growth is expected to come from the Financials, Industrials and Materials sectors.

• United States

  For 2026, expectations are for earnings growth of approximately 14%, driven by both wider profit margins and revenue growth. The backdrop of solid earnings growth, AI investment and policy focus on consumers should continue to support U.S. equities, punctuated by periods of volatility.

• Europe

  For investors seeking diversification from concentrated AI exposure and positioning for global economic acceleration, European equities offer an attractive alternative if the earnings recovery gains momentum and valuations begin to reflect improving fundamentals.

• Asia

  Overall, we expect Asia's economy, while solid, to slow slightly in 2026 as softer global trade has the potential to weigh on exports. However, domestic demand remains strong amid monetary-policy easing. Inflation remains mostly contained, granting central banks the leeway to make interest-rate cuts where required.

• Emerging markets

  Prolonged weakness in the U.S. dollar would support further emerging-market outperformance and provide emerging-market central banks with opportunities to ease monetary policy.

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We forecast an environment of moderate economic growth with inflation subsiding sufficiently to motivate continued interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and foster strong corporate profit growth. We still expect stocks to outperform bonds, but recognize the potential for outsized gains has diminished following this year's strong performance that pushed some valuations to extreme levels.

Read more

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Economy

We believe economic growth should accelerate moderately in the year ahead and may pleasantly surprise relative to consensus expectations.

Fixed income

With governments seemingly content to continue running large deficits, we forecast that government fixed-income assets will deliver coupon or cash-like returns.

Equity markets

Valuations are demanding for U.S. large-cap, Canadian and Japanese equities, whereas European and emerging market stocks remain attractively priced.

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Resources

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