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  • Canada

    We see good evidence that Prime Minister Mark Carney and his cabinet are making efforts to grow the Canadian economy and increase economic resilience through supportive policy and infrastructure development.

  • United States

    The market has reached new highs, driven primarily by an unusually strong earnings revision cycle and continued artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures by major technology companies.

  • Europe

    Despite the macroeconomic uncertainties, the near-term earnings environment for European equities remains surprisingly robust.

  • Asia

    Asia's macroeconomic outlook for the next 12 months reflects a transition toward moderate growth amid persistent energy shocks. Regional GDP growth is expected to be anchored by a sustained global tech upcycle and AI-related demand.

  • Emerging markets

    After decades of playing supporting roles, emerging economies are learning to fly independently, powered by rising domestic demand, deepening economic integration, and growing financial autonomy.

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Two major forces are presently dominating the macroeconomic landscape: the ongoing global energy shock versus the rapid advancement and great promise of artificial intelligence (AI). To the extent that the former should prove temporary but the latter should endure, we expect stocks to outperform bonds but recognize that considerable optimism is priced into the equity outlook, particularly in regions with higher exposure to AI.

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Economy

The economic backdrop remains surprisingly resilient despite the energy shock, with economic data in both the U.S. and the G10 better than it was a year ago.

Fixed income

We forecast low-to-mid single-digit returns for government bonds, with the potential to earn higher returns in corporate bonds, though the added compensation for taking credit risk is historically small.

Equity markets

Following the strong gains of the past quarter, stocks are pricing in an optimistic scenario, assuming that the supportive macro backdrop and rapidly growing profits persist.

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RBC GAM is the asset management division of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) which includes RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (RBC GAM Inc.), RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc. (RBC GAM-US), RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited (RBC GAM-UK), and RBC Global Asset Management (Asia) Limited (RBC GAM-Asia), which are separate, but affiliated subsidiaries of RBC.

In Canada, this material is provided by RBC GAM Inc. (including PH&N Institutional), which is regulated by each provincial and territorial securities commission. In the United States (US), this material is provided by RBC GAM-US, a federally registered investment adviser. In the United Kingdom (UK) and Australia this material is provided by RBC GAM-UK, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. In the European Economic Area (EEA), this material is provided by BlueBay Funds Management Company S.A. (BBFM S.A.), which is regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). In Germany, France, Sweden, Italy, Spain and Netherlands the BBFM S.A. is operating under a branch passport pursuant to the Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities Directive (2009/65/EC) and the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (2011/61/EU). In Spain, BlueBay Funds Management S.A is registered with the CNMV under No. 607. In Switzerland, this material is provided by BlueBay Asset Management AG where the Representative and Paying Agent is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland. In Japan, this material is provided by BlueBay Asset Management International Limited, which is registered with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau of Ministry of Finance, Japan. In Asia, this material is provided by RBC GAM-Asia, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in Hong Kong.

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Any investment and economic outlook information contained in this material has been compiled by RBC GAM from various sources. Information obtained from third parties is believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by RBC GAM, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. RBC GAM and its affiliates assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions in such information.

Opinions contained herein reflect the judgment and thought leadership of RBC GAM and are subject to change at any time. Such opinions are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment or financial advice and should not be relied or acted upon for providing such advice. RBC GAM does not undertake any obligation or responsibility to update such opinions.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

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